cross asset

Carry Signal

The expected return of holding a high-yielding asset funded by a low-yielding one, absent price changes.

Carry is the return earned by holding an asset that pays a higher yield than the cost of financing it, assuming prices remain unchanged. Carry signals rank assets by their carry (yield differential) and go long the highest-yielding while shorting the lowest-yielding.

Carry across asset classes

  • FX carry — long high-interest-rate currencies, short low-rate currencies. The classic currency carry trade exploits the empirical violation of uncovered interest parity.
  • Fixed income carry — holding bonds at a steeper part of the yield curve, or longer-duration positions when the curve is upward-sloping.
  • Commodity carry — the roll yield in futures markets: the return from a futures position rolling down the forward curve when the market is in backwardation.
  • Equity carry — dividend yield or earnings yield as a proxy for the expected return premium above the risk-free rate.

Koijen, Moskowitz, Pedersen, and Vrugt (2018) documented that carry predicts returns across all major asset classes using a unified framework. Carry strategies are exposed to sudden crash risk (carry unwind events) when funding conditions tighten and risk appetite falls — an asymmetry captured by risk-on/risk-off dynamics.

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