Tools

Does your diversification survive a crisis?

A book of twelve assets across three sectors looks comfortably spread out. Then a crisis hits, everything starts moving together, and the diversification you were counting on quietly disappears. Drag the market-stress slider and watch the correlation matrix go red — and the number of bets you actually have collapse toward one.

What it shows: diversification only protects you to the extent your holdings move independently. This simulator builds twelve synthetic assets from a simple factor model (a shared market factor + per-sector factors + asset-specific noise), so in calm markets you see real block structure — assets correlate strongly within a sector and weakly across sectors. A market-stress slider then mixes every pairwise correlation toward 1. As it rises, the equal-weight book's volatility climbs and the effective number of independent bets Neff = N ⁄ (1 + (N−1)ρ̄) falls toward one — the same √-law that caps signal breadth, here capping portfolio diversification.

All series are synthetic and every figure is illustrative — nothing here is a performance claim, a real correlation, or investment advice. The single-/multi-factor model and equal-weight book are teaching simplifications; the stress mixing keeps the matrix a valid (positive-semidefinite) correlation matrix at every level. The empirical regularity it dramatises — that correlations spike in crises — is well documented (Longin & Solnik 2001; Ang & Chen 2002), as is the diversification-ratio lens (Choueifaty & Coignard 2008). Related tools: Signal Combination Simulator · Cointegration & Pairs Trading Simulator · Backtest Overfitting Simulator · Information Coefficient Calculator · Signal Decay Calculator.

Turn up the stress

Twelve assets across three sectors, equal-weighted. Slide market stress from a calm, idiosyncratic-driven market toward a full-blown crisis where everything moves together — and watch the matrix, the volatility, and the number of bets you really have all react live.

0% = a normal market (sector structure intact) · 100% = a crisis (every asset moves as one)

re-draws the twelve assets' factor loadings — a different but equally diversified-looking book

Calm market — the structure is intact

At 0% stress the average pairwise correlation is 0.23, so your twelve equal-weighted assets behave like only 3.4 independent bets. An equal-weight book's volatility is 0.54× a single asset — versus the 0.29× you'd get from twelve genuinely uncorrelated ones. Even now, in calm conditions, you never had twelve real bets — the shared market and sector factors mean you started with about 3.4. Drag the stress toward a crisis and watch even that shrink toward one.

The correlation matrix

Sector ASector ASector BSector BSector CSector C0.0correlation1.0

Each cell is the correlation between two assets — pale teal is low, red is high. In a calm market the three sectors stand out as hot blocks on a cool background; as stress rises the whole grid reddens, because every pair starts moving together. The diagonal is always 1 (an asset with itself).

How much diversification you actually have

Effective bets

3.4

of 12 nominal holdings

Avg correlation ρ̄

0.23

mean of all off-diagonal pairs

Equal-weight vol

0.54×

vs 0.29× if uncorrelated

Undiversifiable floor

0.48×

√ρ̄ — vol can't drop below this

Within-sector ρ

0.49

same-sector pairs

Cross-sector ρ

0.13

different-sector pairs

Vol reduction

46%

vs holding just one

Bets at full crisis

1.1

at 90% stress

Reading this

The number of holdings is not the number of bets. Twelve assets that share a market and sector factors carry the risk of far fewer — and in a crisis, when correlations rush toward one, that count collapses toward a single bet. It's the same √-law that caps signal combination: only independent exposures count. Real diversification comes from holdings whose drivers genuinely differ — see portfolio construction and risk management for how to budget risk when correlations won't stay still.

Your bets vanish as the crisis builds

12 — if assets were uncorrelated1 — a single bet3.4 bets120calmcrisis →Market stress → · effective independent bets ↓

The effective number of independent bets, Neff = N ⁄ (1 + (N−1)ρ̄), across the full stress range. You start well below the 12-bet ideal (grey dashed) even in calm markets, and the curve falls toward a single bet as stress approaches a crisis. The teal marker is where your slider sits.

Why more names stop helping

floor √ρ̄ = 0.48 — undiversifiableif uncorrelated (1/√N → 0)12 assets: 0.541.00Number of equal-weight assets → · book volatility (× a single asset) ↓

Equal-weight portfolio volatility as you add assets, at the current average correlation. If the assets were uncorrelated (grey dashed) volatility would fall as 1/√N toward zero. At your ρ̄ (blue) it flattens into the floor √ρ̄ (red) — the systematic risk no number of correlated names can diversify away. The higher the stress, the higher that floor.

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